Friday, October 10, 2008

Oui, it's that time of the month again.

I like this new schedule. Blog, not only when one feels like it, but also commit a certain time frame in which one is obliged to blog. The spontaneity is guaranteed within that interval and the so is the post since it is a pre-commitment. Lessons from behavioral economics.

Speaking of which, Predictably Irrational by Dan Ariely. Good stuff. Its a discourse on behavioral economics without the tacky jargon.

So, what do I want to talk about today?

So unless you've been living under a rock, you'd probably know that the FED has just issued a $700 billion dollar bail out for the banks. What strikes me as interesting is the fact that if we are stuck in this period of crisis, then where's the crisis? I suppose in some respects we're not really feeling the heat of it cause we're shielded by China. But based on the news and all the surrounding hype especially in US, Europe, we're all basically going to be fucked. I emphasize going to be. China has just cut it's interest rates, signaling they're not doing so well after all. Japan has been in recession for the better part of the last decade. Singapore is totally dependent on the US and European market.

I suppose it's fine and dandy that we sit on our couches and watch TV all day, more so cause we're Chinese, for all we know our parents have some secret stash of money hidden somewhere that's more remote than an off-shore Caribbean account. But I say think of the implications this would have on us. I'm sure we're not going to live in our parents shadows forever. UK are talking of not issuing work permits anymore, not even to Australians, they love Aussies. Rudd has just speculated that there would be a cap on immigrants soon. CAT has just reported down turns in it's profits. Apple, Microsoft, even Walmart, the safe house supposedly has reported losses. And worst still, the $700 billion boost which was supposed to restore consumer confidence within the market, well it's not working. 7 day straight losses in the Dow and Treasury Bills have never been so low in, 20 years I think. Oil prices are set to plumate.

It's very disapproving I suppose talking of market crashes in retrospect. But it's just ironic I think. Because if you open any macroeconomics book published this year, you'd see that we're doing fine (specifically the US, Australia and most European country of course). And in 6 mothns, poof. Speculation points to the biggest recession the world has ever seen. Of course if you believe Buffet, then this is the best time to make some moolah. Thats probably true. Fact is, today's economy is dependent on the technological breakthroughs discovered due to the Great Depression. Maybe it's time we found new technology. The fundamentals of macroeconomics is writen as a result of the Great Depression. Maybe it's time for new ideas. Maybe an anrchic state can no longer function at a time where globalisation is apparent.

I think whats happening is big no doubt, but the cure would be something even bigger. We only have to look back through history to realise that big events warrant big cures.

Enough of speculations, I still don't like convergent series, particularly using the itegral test in determining the existance of a convergent series. So I must like it.